Even in optimistic scenarios, progress toward deescalation and stability is likely to be incremental, slow, and uneven. Overcoming these factors is a daunting task for regional and international policymakers. The result is a complicated hornet’s nest of military interventions across the region.
And fourth, the Middle East suffers from a notable dearth of norms of warfare and dispute resolution mechanisms in comparison with other regions of the world. Third, arms imports to the region have skyrocketed-sales for which the United States and its European allies actively compete.
Second, local disputes have become the stage on which ever-present regional rivalries are playing out in larger, more lethal conflicts.
First, the regional balance of power has been highly uncertain following the 2011 uprisings as well as the aftermath of the 2003 U.S. But while such rivalries are indeed consequential, broader dynamics have also made these conflicts particularly long and ugly.įour factors in particular have served to escalate and perpetuate conflicts. Regional power struggles, such as the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, are widely understood to be complicating factors. But not since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire a century ago has the Middle East been so convulsed by regional turbulence and internal conflict.Īmid this crumbling regional order, the ongoing civil wars, especially in Syria and Yemen but also in Libya and Iraq, have become apparently intractable. This has been the case for the region’s modern history and will remain so for the foreseeable future. More than any other region in the world, the Middle East is defined not by commercial ties, diplomatic interaction, or regional organizations, but by hard power and military might.
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